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NYU IHIF 2025, Smaller Crowd, Bigger Questions—and a Resilient Refrain: Travel is a Need, Not a Want
- Stacy Silver
- 1 day ago
- 6 min read
While attendance dropped to around 1,500 at this year's NYU International Hospitality Industry Investment Conference (IHIF) at the New York Marriott Marquis, the mood remained firmly grounded in cautious optimism. With macroeconomic volatility looming and deal flow still lagging, industry leaders returned to a familiar theme: travel demand is holding steady.
Deutsche Bank's Chief U.S. Economist, Matthew Luzzetti, offered an economic outlook with both reassurance and a reality check. The US, he said, is navigating a "very large tariff shock," thanks to April's so-called "Liberation Day" policy announcements from President Trump. While the average tariff rate has since dropped from 30% to 17% following modifications, Luzzetti warned that this still amounts to the biggest disruption to US trade policy in a century—fueling inflation and contributing to economic uncertainty.
Despite that, Luzzetti emphasized the resilience of US consumers. Household net worth relative to income remains near record highs (hovering around 800%), and service-sector spending continues to be stable. However, he flagged warning signs at the lower end of the income scale: rising delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, as well as a looming $1.6 trillion student loan burden that's no longer in deferment. The picture is divided—healthy at the top, stretched at the bottom.
As for the labor market, "We're in a fragile equilibrium," Luzzetti warned, pointing to slowing demand for new hires and the risk of future layoffs. Still, his bottom line: while consumer spending may slow in 2026, a recession is likely avoidable.
Protest at the CEO Panel
If Luzzetti set the economic tone, the Monday afternoon CEO panel moderated by Sara Eisen from CNBC that featured Mark Hoplamazian from Hyatt Hotels Corporation, Tony Capuano from Marriott International, Elie Maalouf from IHG Hotels & Resorts, Chris Nassetta from Hilton, Geoff Balloti from Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, and Sebastien Bazin from Accor set the scene—complete with a surprise interruption. Protestors disrupted the session with chants and signage criticizing Marriott's use of eggs from caged hens. Security quickly stepped in to remove the demonstrators.
The panel resumed, pivoting to macro challenges, shortened booking windows, and changing consumer behaviors. Hilton's Chris Nassetta noted that customers are increasingly booking last-minute and holding off on longer-term travel commitments. "It's hard to forecast anything these days," he admitted.
Hyatt's Mark Hoplamazian echoed the sentiment, highlighting a slowdown in transient pace two months out but increases closer to booking time. "The intent to travel is there," he said. "But people are waiting longer to pull the trigger."
Global Growth Still on the Table, Domestic Demand Under Pressure
While inbound international travel to the US remains below pre-pandemic levels—down 15% overall and more than 30% from Canada—the CEOs pointed to brighter opportunities abroad. India and the Middle East emerged as clear growth engines. Wyndham announced plans for 100 Super 8s in Saudi Arabia, and executives from Accor, Hilton, and Hyatt expressed bullish outlooks on India's booming infrastructure and rising middle class.
In the US, however, investment activity remains tentative. Most brands are holding on development until interest rates and public policy stabilize, and while RevPAR is growing modestly, expectations have tempered. STR revised its forecast down to 1% growth this year.
While transactions remain muted, capital continues to seek a home. "Despite a more muted sale transaction environment, debt markets remain strong with more capital available than there are deals," said Jillian Mariutti, Senior Director at JLL. "C-PACE financing is emerging as a tool to bring down the cost of capital for construction and renovation deals in today's market." Mariutti emphasized that refinancing activity is picking up and that strategic focus on "motivated sellers and must-close business is essential for ensuring deal closure in the current environment."
Deals that are getting across the finish line are increasingly dependent on realistic underwriting, creative structuring, and a compelling value story. "Yield is king," said Abigail Tsay, Associate at RealINSIGHT Marketplace. "Buyers are targeting high-upside deals to hit return metrics, even with higher costs of capital—both on the acquisition side and for PIPs."Â
Financing strategies are adapting to the new rate reality. "Owners that are acquiring at the right basis on assets that have solid cash flow have an immense number of financing options," said Stacey Nadolny, Credit Writing & Portfolio Manager- Hotel Franchise Finance at Western Alliance Bank. "Debt funds continue to be the most active, with the most favorable combination of spread and proceeds." She also noted the growing use of C-PACE and preferred equity structures to right-size loans.
Chelsey Leffet, COO of HVS's US Consulting & Valuation Division, agreed, noting that while "truly alternative financing strategies remain limited," traction is coming from non-recourse lenders stepping in where traditional banks won't. "Ultimately, financing is available, but many owners are still adjusting to the reality that sub-5% rates are unlikely to return anytime soon," she added.
Buyers and Lenders Grow More Selective
Tsay, Nadolny, and Leffet all emphasized a more selective, cautious approach to underwriting. "For us, seller profile and motivation are critical," said Tsay. "Buyers want to know the deal is real. We're seeing aggressive bidding—but only when there's clear upside and a motivated seller."
"Stable, in-place cash flow; realistic ADR growth; minimal capital investment needs; and strong demand fundamentals are what we're seeing prioritized," said Leffet. "Investors are more conservative now on exit cap rates and underwriting margins."
Nadolny added that brand strength remains non-negotiable. "We tend to lend only on high-contribution brands. A hotel that can open with 60% of rooms filled on day one due to brand affiliation reduces risk dramatically," she said. Even in crowded markets, she noted that owners are still eager to sign with Marriott, Hilton, and, increasingly, newer lifestyle brands launched by IHG and Hyatt.
Brand Proliferation
Brand proliferation continues to be a hot topic—one that brought nuanced insights from Mariutti. "The hotel industry had nearly 1,400 global brands by the end of 2023—10% more than at the close of 2019," she noted. "That raises important questions about sustainability. If a new brand doesn't clearly serve an underserved guest segment, it risks diluting value."
She pointed out that brand expansion is often driven more by developer needs than consumer demand. "Since parent companies derive roughly half their value from net unit growth, offering more brand options keeps owners within the brand family, even in high-cost or low-margin development markets." Hilton's Spark brand, for example, was created as a more accessible alternative for owners unable to meet the requirements of legacy brand PIPs.
"Independent hotels are experiencing a significant liquidity boom in the post-pandemic era, with a remarkable 55% increase in liquidity compared to pre-pandemic periods. The investor landscape has evolved considerably — while private equity firms traditionally dominated independent hotel investments, today, high-net-worth individuals capture approximately 22% of total independent hotel transaction volume. Institutional investors have also maintained a strong presence, consistently accounting for double-digit percentages of independent hotel transactions since 2021," Mariutti shared.
Travel Is the Constant
Despite it all, the one thing that has not wavered is the demand for travel. Marriott's Tony Capuano emphasized that travel is now viewed as essential, not elective. Hoplamazian took it one step further, citing Maslow's hierarchy: "People need camaraderie. That doesn't go away."
And even as the hospitality industry adjusts to a new reality—of tariffs, uncertainty, and delayed timelines—it continues to hold fast to the same belief: that the need to connect, explore, and gather is a force stronger than fear.
Awards & Accolades
Several industry executives were honored during the conference for their contributions to the industry:Â
Shai Zelering, Managing Partner, Real Estate at Brookfield, was recognized by UJA-Federation of New York for his philanthropic leadership at the Hospitality Division's Annual Event.Â
Anthony Capuano, CEO of Marriott International, was honored with the Silver Plate Award for Excellence in Lodging, Presented by CoStar.
Cindy Estis Green, Co-Founder and CEO of Kalibri Labs, was named Innovator of the Year by Cornell University's Nolan School of Hotel Administration.
Mark Hoplamazian, President & CEO of Hyatt Hotels Corporation, was recognized as Icon of the Year by Cornell Nolan School for his enduring leadership and industry impact.
More Women On Stage & Networking
It was great to see more women on stage and a very busy networking breakfast sponsored by AHLA ForWard. The breakfast was packed despite a very early start, hopefully there is a bigger space for the women’s breakfast next year! A sign of progress indeed…
