ALIS 2026 Signals a Market in Recalibration, Not Recovery

A Cautious Start to the Investment Year

The 25th anniversary of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS) kicked off in Los Angeles last week amid a massive winter storm affecting much of the country. Widespread flight cancellations and delays complicated travel for thousands of hospitality executives attempting to reach Southern California.

Despite the logistical hurdles, the industry’s first major investment conference of the year delivered a clear read on market sentiment, defined less by optimism than by uncertainty.

Across panels and data presentations, speakers acknowledged that transaction volume has been slower to recover than many initially expected. Higher interest rates, persistent valuation gaps, and cautious underwriting have kept capital on the sidelines, reinforcing a wait-and-see environment. While few expressed outright pessimism, many agreed that the timing and depth of a broader recovery remain unclear.

Reassessing Assets and Expectations

Leah Murphy, Founder of Jane Hospitality, described the current environment as one of reassessment. “Owners of existing assets are evaluating which properties are built to last in this environment and which may be better sold at a realistic basis,” said Murphy. “Softer RevPAR forecasts, rising expenses, and cash flow pressure are forcing sellers to align expectations with market realities.”

Left to Right: Jennifer Fugolo, ALHA, Leah Murphy, Jane Street, and Jennifer Neptune, Boutique Hotels

Nele Breitbart, EVP and Head of Asset Management at Waramaug Hospitality, described the prevailing mindset as more about recalibration than defense.

“The operating and capital environment has fundamentally shifted, and many of the assumptions that worked for years no longer hold in the same way,” she said. “As a result, decision-making has become slower but more deliberate, not because capital has disappeared, but because conviction now requires greater proof.”

Slower Growth, Tighter Capital Structures

Rika Lisslö, Vice President of Development, Americas at Hyatt, echoed that sentiment, characterizing the current moment as reassessing with realism.

“Forecasts point to a slower RevPAR growth environment with increasing operating expenses and fixed costs,” she said. “CoStar and Tourism Economics project U.S. ADR growth of approximately 1 percent and RevPAR growth of roughly 0.5 to 0.7 percent in 2026. That outlook is driving a more fundamentals-based approach to decision-making.”

Lisslö added that capital structure conversations are increasingly front and center, with more owners engaging earlier around refinancing.

“Assets with weaker trailing debt yields may require paydowns or alternative outcomes,” she said, noting that refinancing and maturity risk are now unavoidable conversations for many owners.

Macroeconomic Headwinds, Resilient Demand

Macroeconomic and geopolitical factors remained central throughout the conference. Ongoing global instability, election-year uncertainty, and questions around the future path of interest rates continue to weigh on decision-making.

At the same time, panelists emphasized that lodging demand fundamentals remain resilient, even as owners and operators plan conservatively.

A Bifurcated Performance Landscape

Data played a central role in shaping discussions at ALIS. New forecasts point to a bifurcated performance landscape, with extended-stay and select-service assets continuing to outperform. At the same time, some full-service and urban hotels face margin pressure driven by labor costs and rising operating expenses.

Rather than anticipating a swift rebound, many speakers framed the current environment as one requiring disciplined execution, realistic underwriting assumptions, and heightened operational focus.

Technology and analytics were frequently cited as essential tools for navigating uncertainty. Owners and operators are increasingly relying on data-driven decision-making across revenue optimization, labor efficiency, and asset-level benchmarking to protect margins and manage downside risk.

“Hotel performance has moved past the post-COVID rebound and is no longer moving in one direction across the industry,” said Murphy. She pointed to what STR has described as a trifurcation of demand and emphasized that “metrics beyond RevPAR, like TRevPAR and segment-level profitability, are becoming more meaningful as owners and operators focus on what actually converts to profit.”

Evolving Deal Structures and Capital Strategies

While transaction activity remains muted, deal structures are evolving. Investors discussed recapitalizations, preferred equity, and creative financing solutions as interim strategies to bridge valuation gaps and unlock liquidity.

Conversions also emerged as a recurring theme, particularly as brands refine strategies to capture value from underutilized office and mixed-use assets in select markets.

“Protecting returns is less about stretching for upside and more about focusing on what we can control, cost structure, capital timing, and overall risk exposure,” Breitbart said. She added that more actionable acquisition opportunities are likely to emerge as owners become more pragmatic about current conditions.

From an operational and strategic perspective, Lisslö emphasized that value creation in a low-growth environment is increasingly margin-driven.

“With modest ADR growth, protecting returns comes down to flow-through,” she said, pointing to tighter revenue management, disciplined sales execution, and labor productivity initiatives. She also noted that distribution economics are playing a larger role as independent owners revisit brand and soft-brand affiliation decisions. “This is less about branding for its own sake and more about improving net RevPAR and cash-flow durability while cost pressures remain elevated.”

Industry Leadership Recognized

ALIS also took time to recognize industry leaders whose influence extends beyond financial performance:

Left to Right— Stacy Silver, Anthony Rutledge, HEI Hotels & Resorts, Tony Capuano, Marriott, Pam Jenkins, Shatterproof, Gary Mendell, Shatterproof & HEI Hotels & Resorts & Geoff Ballotti, Wyndham.

• Mit Shah, CEO of Noble Investment Group, received the 2026 Arne Sorenson Social Impact Leadership Award.

• Leeny Oberg, CFO and EVP of Development at Marriott, was named Jack A. Shaffer Financial Advisor of the Year.

  
  

  

  Left to right: Gilda Perez-Alvarado with award winners Leeny Oberg, and Mit Shah

  
  

• Tony Capuano, CEO of Marriott, received the 2026 Hospitality Heroes Award from Shatterproof for his advocacy around addiction and mental health.

  
  

• Bruce White, Founder and President of White Lodging Services, was honored posthumously with the 2026 ISHC Pioneer Award.

  
  

A Market Pausing, Not Retreating

Despite concerns around international travel, overall demand expectations remain cautiously stable. Leisure travel continues to anchor performance in many markets, while business and group travel show uneven recovery. Market divergence is becoming more pronounced, underscoring the importance of asset-specific and location-driven strategies. Murphy also noted that monitoring short-term rental trends alongside hotel performance is increasingly important, as adjacent lodging supply continues to influence demand patterns.

As ALIS 2026 concluded, there was no clear consensus on when transaction volume would return or how quickly capital markets would regain momentum. Instead, the conference reflected a collective pause as the industry revises expectations.

What stood out most was not hesitation, but the maturity of decision-making in a cycle where patience has become a strategic advantage. The conversations at ALIS revealed a lodging sector grounded in strong fundamentals yet operating amid persistent uncertainty, a reality likely to shape investment strategies well beyond the opening weeks of the year.